WASHINGTON: More than seven years after President Donald Trump launched sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods, official data and widely cited economic studies show the measures raised costs inside the United States while leaving the core U.S. goods trade deficit with China largely intact. The tariff program began in 2018 under a federal trade law investigation and has remained a defining feature of the bilateral economic relationship through successive policy adjustments.
Economic data show higher costs and record trade surpluses during the extended US China tariff period.
Congressional and executive branch summaries show the United States imposed additional duties ranging from 7.5% to 25% on roughly $370 billion worth of imports from China, prompting China to retaliate on about $110 billion in U.S. trade. The tariffs covered broad categories of intermediate inputs and consumer products, affecting supply chains for manufacturers, retailers, and logistics providers that rely on imported components and finished goods.
Peer reviewed research on the 2018 tariff rounds found the price increases were borne mainly by U.S. importers and consumers rather than absorbed by Chinese exporters through lower prices. One widely cited analysis estimated that, by late 2018, the tariffs were costing U.S. consumers and importing firms billions of dollars per month and reducing aggregate real income, while retaliatory measures weighed on U.S. exporters in sectors exposed to Chinese counter tariffs.
The U.S. goods trade gap with China remained substantial years after the tariffs took effect. The U.S. Trade Representative reported the U.S. goods trade deficit with China was $295.5 billion in 2024, an increase from 2023. That figure underscores that the large bilateral imbalance persisted well after the introduction of the tariffs that Trump presented as a central tool for changing trade outcomes.
Tariffs’ domestic price impact comes into sharper focus
Economists have repeatedly found that tariffs function as a tax at the border that can lift prices for imported inputs and finished goods, depending on market conditions and substitution options. For many U.S. firms, that meant higher landed costs, added compliance work, and adjustments to sourcing strategies. In categories where switching suppliers was difficult or slow, importers often faced a choice between paying the duty or passing higher costs through the supply chain.
China’s latest trade performance adds another measurable datapoint about how global trade flows adapted during the tariff era. China reported a record trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion in 2025, a sharp increase from 2024, as exports rose while imports were largely flat. China’s exports to the United States fell about 20% in dollar terms in 2025, while shipments to other markets increased, including gains to Africa, Southeast Asia, the European Union, and Latin America.
The 2025 figures show that China’s export sector expanded strongly outside the U.S. market even as tariffs remained in place. Growth was driven by categories such as electronics and machinery, with official data also showing a rise in auto exports. The result was that China’s overall external surplus grew, even as the U.S. market accounted for a smaller share of China’s export growth than in earlier years.
How rerouted trade limited changes in the bottom line
Within the United States, the trade war period was marked by supply chain reconfiguration rather than a clean reduction in import reliance. Importers shifted sourcing to other countries in some product lines, but many of the affected goods remained essential for U.S. production and consumer demand, limiting the scope for immediate substitution. In practice, trade patterns often shifted across borders and intermediaries while the tariff related costs remained embedded in prices paid by U.S. buyers.
Business sentiment data from late 2025 also reflected that tariffs were only one element shaping corporate decisions. A survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China found U.S. companies operating there cited China’s slowing economy as their top concern, with trade friction also ranking high. The findings highlighted that, despite years of tariffs and political tension, many firms continued to weigh market demand, operational stability, and costs more than tariff headlines alone.
Taken together, the record shows that the signature trade policy launched under Trump produced measurable domestic costs and did not eliminate the large bilateral goods deficit reported years later. China’s record 2025 trade surplus, alongside research on tariff pass through to U.S. prices and the continued scale of U.S. China goods trade, provides a data based account of outcomes that diverged from the stated goal of quickly reshaping the trade balance through tariffs alone. – By Content Syndication Services.